We’re already at the beginning of February. That means that the latest data from CoreLogic is out - and we can do a quick assessment on how the Land Cycle is tracking as we head into 2024!   Home values are up 0.4% through the month – building from the 0.3% increase seen in November and December.   It marks the 12th straight month of value rises.   It wasn’t so long ago mass media headlines were screaming at investors to run for the hills, with property prices expected to fal

Why is the land cycle peak forecast for Australia for 2026? Why not 2025? Or 2027? (As I've previously suggested may be the case in Perth)..

There are two books I consider essential reading for any student of the land cycle.   The first I have referenced previously. It’s The Coming Boom in Real Estate and What to do about it - written by Roy Wenzlick and published in the midst of the Great Depression in 1936.   Last year I wrote an edition dedicated to Roy Wenzlick (1894-1988).   I titled him - the greatest property forecaster that lived ! You can find the edition in the Members Publications area of the website.

The year has got off to a good start, and the land cycle is bang on track with the national median reaching a new peak over 2023...

Last year I wrote an edition dedicated to Roy Wenzlick (1894-1988). I titled him - the greatest property forecaster that lived ! You can find the edition in the Members Publications area of the website.   It was intended to educate readers on the man I give credit for discovering a U.S. wide real estate cycle that lasted on average, around 18 years.     In Wenzlick’s words, “Thirty-eight years ago, I pointed out in the Real Estate Analyst (1936) that real estate had followed

The period between 2024-mid- 2026 should be significant.  It’s the winner’s curse phase of the property cycle!   The winner’s Curse is a term coined by Fred Harrison.  (At least in its relation to the 18.6-year land cycle.)   Regular readers will be familiar with Fred’s writing.   I’d argue he’s one of the world’s most successful economic forecasters of our time!   Fred has successfully pinned the timing of both the mid- and end of cycle downturns, with precise accuracy, over

Looking out at a cold grey Melbourne sky at the beginning of summer, it’s easy be a bit pessimistic. Especially about navigating the land cycle. The news bombards with stories of war, massive protests, the rising cost of living, panic over potential recession…. It’s no wonder a majority are fearing the outlook in 2024. However, it’s all smoke and mirrors! You should be extremely excited for the future — not fearful. The news won’t tell you this – but if you understand the 18-

Last year, the Greens made a push to scrap the tradition of saying the Lord’s Prayer in the upper house. This year, the Victorian government have pledged to do the same, despite it being a tradition since 1918. Instead, they want fellow parliamentarians to stand and reflect, say affirmations, or their own version of a prayer. Reflection has a lot going for it. I meditate from time to time, too. However, I wonder if parliamentarians would be so keen to scrap the Lord’s Prayer

A few days ago, I joined the two renegade economists, Dr Cameron Murray and Leith van Onselen , to bust a few myths about the current economic environment. I also got their insights into the cycle as we transit through the final few years to the peak in 2026. Both Cameron and Leith write their own independent narratives on the real estate market and macro economy — with information that stands refreshingly apart from the BS shared in the mainstream media. After all, over the

‘ Never before have such fortunes been made overnight by so many people, ’ said US journalist and statesman Edwin LeFevre in his narrative of the ‘Roaring 1920s.’ It was the ‘get-rich-quick’ era. Many were still suffering from the previous depression in 1920. But regardless, the notion was that anyone could become a millionaire overnight from speculation on Wall Street. ‘ Only the hardiest spoilsports rose to protest that the wild and unchecked speculative fever might be bad

The mainstream media (MSM) is full of stories of desperate families unable to secure rental accommodation. Take this one from QLD: ‘ Renee and Troy have been frantically flicking through real estate sites trying to find a rental after the owner of their old home gave them a 60-day vacation notice… ‘ They are unable to put a number on how many applications have come back unsuccessful. ‘ “ We’ve lost count, but I would say well over 60 by now, ” Troy said. ‘ The rejection is ta

Another week and yet another flipped forecast from one of the major banks. Westpac Banking Corporation [ASX:WBC] is now predicting Sydney house prices to rise by 10%! Would you ‘Adam and Eve’ it? (For the uninitiated to London slang, that’s cockney for ‘believe’.) Source: The Australian Financial Review. [Click to open in a new window] ‘ Westpac has significantly upgraded its expectations, tipping dwelling prices to rise 7% nationally this year followed by a further 4% next

Governments around the world are spending trillions of dollars on infrastructure. There’s the US’ $1-trillion infrastructure push, China’s enormous Belt and Road Initiative spanning continents, the UK’s promise of £650 billion in infrastructure schemes over the next decade…the list goes on. It’s the biggest global build-out of physical assets in human history. Think roads, bridges, airports, seaports, energy facilities, 5G towers, schools, hospitals, rail, and even hyperloops

The land market — and the credit created against it — drives the real estate cycle, which drives the economy, which ultimately drives both the stock market and the real estate market. If you don’t understand the land market, you’re blind to the risks and opportunities taken while invest. By viewing the economy through the lens of the 18-year real estate cycle, you have an advantage over every other investor. At the very heart of the real estate cycle, chasing the unearned wea

We all desire a country built on the pillars of community, equity, and economic justice. But it’s simply not possible in a country pinned to the foundation of rising land values as a necessity to fund retirement and most other lifestyle and business needs. The social consequence that arises from this costs Australians millions in welfare payments throughout the year. Yet it is still advertised and promoted as the road to riches — unsurprisingly. If I had the choice of being a

In the late 1800s, Melbourne was heralded as ‘Marvelous Melbourne’. It was experiencing the biggest boom Australia had ever seen. Immigrants discovered large nuggets of gold in areas such as Castlemaine and Bendigo. They poured their wealth into the real estate market. By 1889, the value of land in parts of central Melbourne was as high as that in London. The most successful developed an intricate web of land banks, mortgage companies, and building societies. It was all set u

If ever a tall building looked out of place, it’s the Tour Montparnasse in Paris. The structure stands out like a sore thumb against the low-density historical urban backdrop of the city. Take a look: Source: Wikipedia The 210-metre (689-foot) building contains mostly offices, which is unfortunate. The office sector suffered its worst performance in 13 years in Paris over 2022 — with sales volumes down considerably on pre-COVID levels. At the top, there’s a restaurant and vie

Subscribers would have heard me preach many times that advances in technology feed directly into land prices. This is something completely missed in the mainstream — it’s never mentioned. The large economic institutions are still taking bets on when house prices will tank based on shifts in the cash rate. They simply cannot see the bigger picture that the technological boom will sink into the price of land — leading us to peak in 2026. The connection between technology and th

You don’t need to reside in Australia for many years before adopting the firm belief that the economy is choreographed around the property market. It’s touted in the media as the key to the great Australian dream — the apparent right of every citizen to own their own home. Turn on talk radio, and you’ll likely hear much wailing from land-owning baby boomers who fear that their children will never be able to get a foothold onto the mythological property ladder. Except that’s n

One of the most common questions readers ask me is, ‘When is the right time to buy?’ The two most common assumptions are as follows: You buy at the bottom and sell at the peak (and vice versa). It’s ‘time in the market’ that matters, not ‘timing the market’. Both assumptions are somewhat incorrect! As a buyer, timing the market is essential if you want to maximise growth. And with knowledge of the cycle and how it plays out in Australia, you can do just this. Let’s briefly br