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Decoding the Winner's Curse; 2024-2026 the Pinnacle of the Land Cycle

Updated: Dec 14, 2023


The period between 2024-mid- 2026 should be significant. 


It’s the winner’s curse phase of the property cycle!

 

The winner’s Curse is a term coined by Fred Harrison.  (At least in its relation to the 18.6-year land cycle.)

 

Regular readers will be familiar with Fred’s writing.

 

I’d argue he’s one of the world’s most successful economic forecasters of our time!

 

Fred has successfully pinned the timing of both the mid- and end of cycle downturns, with precise accuracy, over the last three decades.

 

That’s a significant feat – one enabled by years of historical research into patterns of boom and bust.

 

The winner's curse is said to be the third phase of the 14-year growth period – around two-years in length.

 

For our purposes, the Winner’s Curse is roughly between mid-2024- mid-2026 – as shown below.



 Source: Catherine Cashmore


It’s a time when we would expect to see large construction projects nearing completion.

 

Speaking of which, the chart below gives a good indication of the pattern we’re witnessing in Australia.

 

With the bulk of major infrastructure projects set for completion coming up to the peak of this cycle - circa 2025.

 

Source: Macromonitor Forecasts. Major transport projects to 2025 – hat/tip to subscriber Jonny Hale

 

This is significant fuel for the land prices into the later two years.


I have a contact at Treasury who has hammered home the issue to me more than once. Simply - we don't have enough construction workers for the roll out.

And because requirements for projects, are unmanageable from both a material and labour perspective - it's one of the reasons we're very unlikely to see any drop in rates in the shorter term.


Take this nugget from an ABC news report this week (hat/tip to subscriber Michael H. who sent me the article.)

A new report from the nation's infrastructure advisory agency is warning of massive workforce shortages jeopardising hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure, housing and energy projects across the country.
Key points:

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