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Last year I wrote an edition dedicated to Roy Wenzlick (1894-1988). I titled him - the greatest property forecaster that lived! You can find the edition in the Members Publications area of the website.


It was intended to educate readers on the man I give credit for discovering a U.S. wide real estate cycle that lasted on average, around 18 years.  


In Wenzlick’s words,

“Thirty-eight years ago, I pointed out in the Real Estate Analyst (1936) that real estate had followed a long cycle which I later determined to average 18 1/3 years.
‘When charted from 1795 to the date of publication it was rather remarkable that the booms and depressions in real estate as measured by the relationship of the number of families had followed a rather consistent pattern of booms and depressions.
‘I never indicated that in each real estate cycle the booms and depressions that followed would equal exactly 18 1/3 years.
‘Some were slightly longer, and some were shorter.
‘But the average length from the peak of one boom to the peak of another, and from the bottom of one depression to the bottom of the next, averaged out at 18 1/3 years.”
Source: Inflation and Real Estate, pub. 1966 – Roy Wenzlick

That’s not to say that Roy Wenzlick was the first to publish data for an 18-year cycle in relation to real estate.


Homer Hoyt had initially written about a long-cycle a few years prior to Wenzlick.

His thesis One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago was published in 1933.


In the book, Hoyt proposed the idea of an 18-year real estate cycle, often referred to as the "Hoyt Cycle" or "Homer Hoyt's 18-Year Cycle."


He suggested that the cycle was driven by a combination of economic, demographic, and social factors.


The publication makes great reading!


Chicago's journey from a muddy trading post to a vibrant city is like a gripping tale of ambition and resilience.


The city not only survived a fiery apocalypse known as the Great Chicago Fire in 1871 but emerged even stronger, reshaping itself with towering skyscrapers and a buzzing industrial scene.

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