Updating the Property Indicator That Has Predicted Every Major Recession. The latest Kavanagh-Putland Index update reveals what property turnover is signalling about Australia's economy, the 18-year land cycle and the growing risk of recession. Discover why turnover—not house prices—has consistently provided one of the earliest warnings of economic downturns.

Property investors are being warned – this is the final phase of the land cycle. This report breaks down Australia’s two-speed housing market, the surge in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, and why Sydney and Melbourne have already turned. Drawing on the historical work of Homer Hoyt and Roy Wenzlick, it explains how population growth, supply constraints, and construction cycles drive booms – and why rising listings, slowing migration, and late-cycle signals point to a market tur

The U.S. property market is flashing the kind of late‑cycle warnings you can’t afford to ignore. Prices are hitting record highs even as transactions plunge to decade‑low levels. Building activity is rolling over, homebuilder stocks are sinking, and the most reliable recession indicator in history - the yield curve - has been inverted for more than two years....

A deep dive into Australia’s 18.6-year land cycle since WWII, revealing how credit booms, construction surges, and aggressive rate hikes have driven past peaks and crashes. Explores whether the current cycle, flipped by COVID stimulus and historic rate rises, will break the pattern as we approach 2026–2028....