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Forecasting the Land Cycle from 2024 - 2026/7

The year has got off to a good start with the latest CoreLogic figures showing the cycle is bang on track.

 

After the shock to markets during 2022 resulting from fears over rising lending rates - latest figures confirm a pretty robust recovery.

 

CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rose 8.1% in 2023, a significant turnaround from the 4.9% drop seen in 2022, but well below the 24.5% surge recorded in 2021.

 

However, the disparity between markets over the last two months is interesting.


Over the past month, dwellings in Perth (1.5%), Adelaide (1.3%) and Brisbane (1.0%) continue to rise in value by 1% or more on a monthly basis.


Melbourne, however, is down -0.3% over the month of December as stock levels start to increase, and Sydney’s market is also slowing, with just an 0.2% increase as we reach the end of the year.

 


Source: CoreLogic



Source: CoreLogic

 

The median for the national market, however, is sitting at a peak – and this is what matters as far as our cyclical analysis is concerned.

 

As I said, the cycle is bang on track.

 

A slowdown in the two biggest capital city markets - Melbourne and Sydney – is not unexpected. 

 

We forecast that these two markets could face challenges in the second half of this cycle back in 2019 when analysing the CAPE charts produced by one of our top LCI researchers, Philip Soos. (Former subscribers to Cycles, Trends & Forecasts over at Fat Tail investment Research, may recall the analysis).

 

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