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The 3 Peaks to the 18.6-year land cycle: why is the land price peak forecast for 2026?

In conversations I have with subscribers, there tends to be a bit of confusion around why the forecast peak for the land cycle in Australia, is 2026.

 

Why not 2025? Why not 2027?

 

Additionally, it’s generally not recognised that the cycle has three peaks that we need to time and assess - and they all come at slightly differing times.

 

(Note - The timing of the economic recession is consistent.  Something I’ll go into further, in another post.)

 

There’s the land price peak: More on this in a moment.

 

There’s the stock market peak: Which can come prior to – or after the land price peak (in Australia.)

 

In the 1980s for example, the stock market peaked in October 1987 before experiencing a sudden panic, commonly known as "Black Monday."

 

It was one of the most significant financial events in modern history.  

 

Money continued to pour into the land market, however, pushing median real estate values vertical - peaking into the second quarter of 1990.  

 

In the 1970s panic – known to have been triggered by the OAPEC crisis, stagflation, but also, importantly, the undermining of the productive economy resulting from a significant real estate boom - the stock market peaked in early 1973. 

The land market however, peaked in 1974.

 

In the early 2000s boom, the stock market peaked in 2007 and didn’t hit its low until March 2009. The land market, peaked into the second quarter of 2008.

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