The period between 2024-mid- 2026 should be significant.  It’s the winner’s curse phase of the property cycle!   The winner’s Curse is a term coined by Fred Harrison.  (At least in its relation to the 18.6-year land cycle.)   Regular readers will be familiar with Fred’s writing.   I’d argue he’s one of the world’s most successful economic forecasters of our time!   Fred has successfully pinned the timing of both the mid- and end of cycle downturns, with precise accuracy, over

I invited my good friend and industry colleague Pete Wargent, to come and have a chat with me about the direction of interest rates, property prices and the economy, in a special interview I have recorded for subscribers below. I have given a couple of lectures recently to Pete’s Next Level Wealth clients. So I asked Pete to return the favour and join me with an exclusive power-point presentation that is comprehensive in content. Our rate rises biting discussion covers,

A new report produced by research firm KPMG forecasts house prices to surge over the next two tears, with a rise nationally of 4.9% over the next nine months and then another 9.4% in the year to June 2025. KPMG’s property report on Australia’s capital cities speculates that apartment prices across the country will see an average rise of 3.1% by next June, followed by a 6% increase in the next 12 months. And as we’ve been forecasting over at Cycles, Trends & Forecasts over th

I reached out to a good friend of mine this week — Pete Wargent — for a chat about the economy, property market, and overview of what to expect as we progress through the next two years. Pete is a well-established finance and property guru in Australia. A British national — he qualified as a Chartered Accountant in London and was previously a Director at the ‘Big Four’ accounting firm Deloitte. He’s also a  6-times published finance author . I’ve known Pete for many years, an

There’s quite a bit of economic data circulating in the news right now that I thought needed to be brought to your attention. So, I jumped on a call with my former co-editor for Cycles, Trends and Forecasts , Callum Newman, to discuss all that’s happening that could bear effect on the remainder of this cycle. We cover… The record property price boom in WA that has seen total residential values explode to a whopping $768 billion. Victoria’s property market bubbling upwards, wi

Another week and yet another flipped forecast from one of the major banks. Westpac Banking Corporation [ASX:WBC] is now predicting Sydney house prices to rise by 10%! Would you ‘Adam and Eve’ it? (For the uninitiated to London slang, that’s cockney for ‘believe’.) Source: The Australian Financial Review. [Click to open in a new window] ‘ Westpac has significantly upgraded its expectations, tipping dwelling prices to rise 7% nationally this year followed by a further 4% next

The land market — and the credit created against it — drives the real estate cycle, which drives the economy, which ultimately drives both the stock market and the real estate market. If you don’t understand the land market, you’re blind to the risks and opportunities taken while invest. By viewing the economy through the lens of the 18-year real estate cycle, you have an advantage over every other investor. At the very heart of the real estate cycle, chasing the unearned wea

In the late 1800s, Melbourne was heralded as ‘Marvelous Melbourne’. It was experiencing the biggest boom Australia had ever seen. Immigrants discovered large nuggets of gold in areas such as Castlemaine and Bendigo. They poured their wealth into the real estate market. By 1889, the value of land in parts of central Melbourne was as high as that in London. The most successful developed an intricate web of land banks, mortgage companies, and building societies. It was all set u

Subscribers would have heard me preach many times that advances in technology feed directly into land prices. This is something completely missed in the mainstream — it’s never mentioned. The large economic institutions are still taking bets on when house prices will tank based on shifts in the cash rate. They simply cannot see the bigger picture that the technological boom will sink into the price of land — leading us to peak in 2026. The connection between technology and th

One of the most common questions readers ask me is, ‘When is the right time to buy?’ The two most common assumptions are as follows: You buy at the bottom and sell at the peak (and vice versa). It’s ‘time in the market’ that matters, not ‘timing the market’. Both assumptions are somewhat incorrect! As a buyer, timing the market is essential if you want to maximise growth. And with knowledge of the cycle and how it plays out in Australia, you can do just this. Let’s briefly br

There’s a lot of fear at the moment regarding rate rises and their ongoing effect on the economy. No one expected the latest 0.25% increase in the cash rate — it caught markets by surprise. There’s now clear indication that the RBA may have tightened too much, and as a consequence, the Australian 2–10-year yield curve has *just* inverted. Source: AMP Capital An inverted yield curve might sound like some complex financial jargon, but it’s pretty straightforward once you break

If you caught Wednesday’s edition of Land Cycle Investor , you’d be aware of the changing trends shaping the mortgage market to enable banks to keep lending. The moves mirror patterns observed in the second half of previous cycles. Notably, in the UK, banks are gearing up to offer no-deposit 100% mortgage loans. A growing number of homebuyers are embracing ‘ultra-long’ mortgages, with terms extending beyond 35 years. This shift has propelled the average asking price of UK pro

Many want to know how to time and sell at the top of the real estate cycle, which, I have forecast to occur in 2026. This is not an easy task. More so because the median peak in property values differs per state and territory. And note, you don’t have to sell at the top! As I’ve stressed previously, history shows that good real estate — in the biggest states by population (primarily Sydney and Melbourne) — typically exceeds the peak of the cycle in the first half of the next

It’s not every day that I find myself aligning with the views of Stephen ‘The Kouk’ Koukoulas. He is a bit of a legend in the Australian economics scene, having worked for the Commonwealth Bank, TD Securities, and Citibank, among other big-name institutions. He also worked as an economic advisor to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Late last year, he took part in ‘The Great Housing Debate’ with Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye. During the debate, The Kouk forecast that Austra

Movements in the field of transportation are shaping what we can expect to see in the last few years of this cycle. They’re affecting how land will be utilised in the next. Remember, infrastructure and the innovation that advances it is part of what gives land its value and turns the real estate cycle. The energy needed to fuel the new forms of transport, however, is what drives the longer Kondratieff cycle. Transportation increases the economic rent of land. But it can also,

Roy Wenzlick is possibly the greatest housing market forecaster of all time.  He did an immense amount of research on the real estate cycle and is renowned for his forecasting abilities.  However, unlike Homer Hoyt (who is credited for ‘discovering’ the 18-year boom/bust pattern as it applied to land in his 1933 book One hundred years of land values in Chicago ), Wenzlick doesn’t get a mention on Wikipedia. In fact, it’s incredibly difficult to find Wenzlick’s publicatio