Why is the land cycle peak forecast for Australia for 2026? Why not 2025? Or 2027? (As I've previously suggested may be the case in Perth)..

The period between 2024-mid- 2026 should be significant.  It’s the winner’s curse phase of the property cycle!   The winner’s Curse is a term coined by Fred Harrison.  (At least in its relation to the 18.6-year land cycle.)   Regular readers will be familiar with Fred’s writing.   I’d argue he’s one of the world’s most successful economic forecasters of our time!   Fred has successfully pinned the timing of both the mid- and end of cycle downturns, with precise accuracy, over

Last year, the Greens made a push to scrap the tradition of saying the Lord’s Prayer in the upper house. This year, the Victorian government have pledged to do the same, despite it being a tradition since 1918. Instead, they want fellow parliamentarians to stand and reflect, say affirmations, or their own version of a prayer. Reflection has a lot going for it. I meditate from time to time, too. However, I wonder if parliamentarians would be so keen to scrap the Lord’s Prayer

A few days ago, I joined the two renegade economists, Dr Cameron Murray and Leith van Onselen , to bust a few myths about the current economic environment. I also got their insights into the cycle as we transit through the final few years to the peak in 2026. Both Cameron and Leith write their own independent narratives on the real estate market and macro economy — with information that stands refreshingly apart from the BS shared in the mainstream media. After all, over the

‘ Never before have such fortunes been made overnight by so many people, ’ said US journalist and statesman Edwin LeFevre in his narrative of the ‘Roaring 1920s.’ It was the ‘get-rich-quick’ era. Many were still suffering from the previous depression in 1920. But regardless, the notion was that anyone could become a millionaire overnight from speculation on Wall Street. ‘ Only the hardiest spoilsports rose to protest that the wild and unchecked speculative fever might be bad

We all desire a country built on the pillars of community, equity, and economic justice. But it’s simply not possible in a country pinned to the foundation of rising land values as a necessity to fund retirement and most other lifestyle and business needs. The social consequence that arises from this costs Australians millions in welfare payments throughout the year. Yet it is still advertised and promoted as the road to riches — unsurprisingly. If I had the choice of being a

Subscribers would have heard me preach many times that advances in technology feed directly into land prices. This is something completely missed in the mainstream — it’s never mentioned. The large economic institutions are still taking bets on when house prices will tank based on shifts in the cash rate. They simply cannot see the bigger picture that the technological boom will sink into the price of land — leading us to peak in 2026. The connection between technology and th

You don’t need to reside in Australia for many years before adopting the firm belief that the economy is choreographed around the property market. It’s touted in the media as the key to the great Australian dream — the apparent right of every citizen to own their own home. Turn on talk radio, and you’ll likely hear much wailing from land-owning baby boomers who fear that their children will never be able to get a foothold onto the mythological property ladder. Except that’s n

Remember, the second half of the cycle, historically, is stronger than the first. The bullet points below set out the pattern. Growth in values was flat between 1955 to the early 1960s, then rose strongly through to 1974 Growth from the late 1970s to the mid-80s was flat, then rose strongly between 1987–89 (the winner’s curse phase of the cycle) There was flat growth from the early 1990s to the mid-1990s, then the market boomed between 2001–08 And again, the market was flat (

If you look at the run-up to the peak in the last few cycles — 1973, 1989, 2008 — rates always rose alongside prices (much like they’re doing now, as we approach the expected 2026 peak). It required lending institutions to find innovative ways to attract borrowers into the winner’s curse phase of the cycle (the final two years), regardless of cost-of-living pressures. Homer Hoyt noted this reoccurring pattern in the run-up to the peak in his book One Hundred Years of

I ran across this headline the other day… Source: AFR The story focuses on the recent change in market conditions. It’s resulted in a vendor at the top end of the market achieving their $2.35 million wish price after their property passed in for $50,000 less six months ago at auction. That’s not surprising. Market conditions have improved. Punters are still budgeting for rate increases and are holding back some in reserve. However, clearance rates are now pushing above 70

I had an interesting question from a reader a few weeks ago: ‘ Hi Catherine, I read your last article and watched your interview with Greg Canavan. ‘ You mentioned that in the last 3 cycle downturns [sic], there hasn’t been anywhere the value decreased more than 15-20%. ‘ The biggest downturn was during the recent slump in 2017-2018 which was around 10%. ‘ So that means at the peak of the cycle it never exceeded that number. So why is that and what’s the point of worrying ab

It’s important to note that the land cycle lays the foundation for all other cycles. We must always view other cycles within the context of what is happening with the land cycle. In the bull phases of the cycle, land prices will always rise faster than general economic growth for two primary reasons. Reason 1: Land is not produced. Its supply is fixed in location. Yet we need it for everything we do! We live on it, sleep on it, work on it, play on it. We derive all our suste

All the issues we face today, inflation, inequality, labour shortages, and high and rising land prices (and rents), have their cause rooted within the land cycle. A few months ago, I interviewed Warren Mosler, the founder of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscribers. We discuss his views on inflation, the monetary system, and, more importantly, why we should have a ‘ property-only tax ’! You can listen to the interview below. Warren is a smart

Dubai is building a moon… Yes, you read that right. In an effort to make itself a global leader in ‘space tourism’, it’s launching what will be the region’s biggest ever tourist project. Dubai’s giant moon will cost 18 billion dirham. It will contain spas, restaurants, nightclubs, luxury residences, a moon shuttle, and training services for various space agencies worldwide. Take a look at the mock up. I’m not sure I’d want it in my backyard, but you can’t deny it’s impressive

You can’t analyse the 18.6-year cycle using short-term data. Yet most real estate indexes only go back a few decades to the time when transactions started to be recorded digitally. Some analysts have delved through historical archives to laboriously extract a longer series of data for various regional areas. However, the one thing I want to tell you about today are the charts spanning 350 years of housing data. The Oldest Housing Index That makes it an extremely valuable docu

The core to learning the mechanics of the 18.6-year land cycle is fully understanding the role of economic rent (unearned income) and rent-seeking in the economy. This is the ‘free lunch’ that so many desire — and the rights to which are protected by the elite at all costs. Throughout the cycle, the greatest economic gains always come from owning the rights to land. However, rent-seeking can take on many forms. Cast your minds back to the taxi licencing monopoly, for example.

In the 1880s, Judge James G Maguire of the Superior Court of the city and county of San Francisco gave a speech to the New York Anti-Poverty Society. He said: ‘I was one day walking along Kearney Street in San Francisco when I noticed a crowd in front of a show window…I took a glance myself, but I saw only a poor picture of an uninteresting landscape. Source: henrygeorge.org [Click to open in a new window] ‘ As I was turning away my eye caught these words underneath the pictu

You’ve no doubt heard of the investment company Blackstone. They’re a behemoth in the world of investment and finance. With more than $730 billion in assets under management, the firm is a force to be reckoned with. They’ve got their fingers in a lot of pies, from private equity to real estate to hedge funds, and they’ve been gobbling up assets and real estate over the years at a breakneck pace. Most recently, Blackstone has also been eyeing up the Australian land market. Fro

I had an interesting question from a Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscriber this week. Take a look: ‘ Catherine, I bought my house here in South Melbourne in October 1981. ‘ It cost me $ 55,000, a 2 bedroom weather board, north yard, free standing with side gateway, all in good order. ‘ I could sell it today for about $1,300,000 $55,000 subtracted from $1,300,000 leaves the sum of $1,245,000.  ‘ Is this sum what you mean by economic rent, I was sleeping a third of that time.