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Key timing for the land cycle recession, and the investment opportunities from the global giga-construction boom

I’ve highlighted a few leading indicators for the peak of the land cycle in recent posts.


 

They all, to some extent, underpin the timing we currently have for a late 2026 land cycle top in real estate markets. (Noting that the timing for the real estate peak, isn’t the exact timing for the stock market peak.)

 

Another very solid timing indicator for the cycle, however, is announcement of world’s tallest building.

 

The tallest buildings tend to be approved when times are good and easy money is sloshing around. It’s usually at the start of the real estate cycle – or following the mid cycle economic downturn.

 

Because of the extended construction timeline however, they typically open at the end of the cycle - unequivocally giving us the time of the recession, if not the exact peak.

 

The pattern is easy to understand.

 

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