We put a lot of emphasis on the residential market when analysing the land cycle. However, few are aware that historically, the commercial real estate booms and busts have had a far more significant impact on Australia’s economy. The commercial real estate downturn in the 1990s for example, was a major event. Despite the recession being officially over in 1991, the crisis for the commercial market peaked in the mid-1990s — with commercial median property values falling over 5

A new report produced by research firm KPMG forecasts house prices to surge over the next two tears, with a rise nationally of 4.9% over the next nine months and then another 9.4% in the year to June 2025. KPMG’s property report on Australia’s capital cities speculates that apartment prices across the country will see an average rise of 3.1% by next June, followed by a 6% increase in the next 12 months. And as we’ve been forecasting over at Cycles, Trends & Forecasts over th

I reached out to a good friend of mine this week — Pete Wargent — for a chat about the economy, property market, and overview of what to expect as we progress through the next two years. Pete is a well-established finance and property guru in Australia. A British national — he qualified as a Chartered Accountant in London and was previously a Director at the ‘Big Four’ accounting firm Deloitte. He’s also a  6-times published finance author . I’ve known Pete for many years, an

There’s quite a bit of economic data circulating in the news right now that I thought needed to be brought to your attention. So, I jumped on a call with my former co-editor for Cycles, Trends and Forecasts , Callum Newman, to discuss all that’s happening that could bear effect on the remainder of this cycle. We cover… The record property price boom in WA that has seen total residential values explode to a whopping $768 billion. Victoria’s property market bubbling upwards, wi

The mainstream media (MSM) is full of stories of desperate families unable to secure rental accommodation. Take this one from QLD: ‘ Renee and Troy have been frantically flicking through real estate sites trying to find a rental after the owner of their old home gave them a 60-day vacation notice… ‘ They are unable to put a number on how many applications have come back unsuccessful. ‘ “ We’ve lost count, but I would say well over 60 by now, ” Troy said. ‘ The rejection is ta

Governments around the world are spending trillions of dollars on infrastructure. There’s the US’ $1-trillion infrastructure push, China’s enormous Belt and Road Initiative spanning continents, the UK’s promise of £650 billion in infrastructure schemes over the next decade…the list goes on. It’s the biggest global build-out of physical assets in human history. Think roads, bridges, airports, seaports, energy facilities, 5G towers, schools, hospitals, rail, and even hyperloops

In the late 1800s, Melbourne was heralded as ‘Marvelous Melbourne’. It was experiencing the biggest boom Australia had ever seen. Immigrants discovered large nuggets of gold in areas such as Castlemaine and Bendigo. They poured their wealth into the real estate market. By 1889, the value of land in parts of central Melbourne was as high as that in London. The most successful developed an intricate web of land banks, mortgage companies, and building societies. It was all set u

If ever a tall building looked out of place, it’s the Tour Montparnasse in Paris. The structure stands out like a sore thumb against the low-density historical urban backdrop of the city. Take a look: Source: Wikipedia The 210-metre (689-foot) building contains mostly offices, which is unfortunate. The office sector suffered its worst performance in 13 years in Paris over 2022 — with sales volumes down considerably on pre-COVID levels. At the top, there’s a restaurant and vie

You don’t need to reside in Australia for many years before adopting the firm belief that the economy is choreographed around the property market. It’s touted in the media as the key to the great Australian dream — the apparent right of every citizen to own their own home. Turn on talk radio, and you’ll likely hear much wailing from land-owning baby boomers who fear that their children will never be able to get a foothold onto the mythological property ladder. Except that’s n

One of the most common questions readers ask me is, ‘When is the right time to buy?’ The two most common assumptions are as follows: You buy at the bottom and sell at the peak (and vice versa). It’s ‘time in the market’ that matters, not ‘timing the market’. Both assumptions are somewhat incorrect! As a buyer, timing the market is essential if you want to maximise growth. And with knowledge of the cycle and how it plays out in Australia, you can do just this. Let’s briefly br

Remember, the second half of the cycle, historically, is stronger than the first. The bullet points below set out the pattern. Growth in values was flat between 1955 to the early 1960s, then rose strongly through to 1974 Growth from the late 1970s to the mid-80s was flat, then rose strongly between 1987–89 (the winner’s curse phase of the cycle) There was flat growth from the early 1990s to the mid-1990s, then the market boomed between 2001–08 And again, the market was flat (

If you caught Wednesday’s edition of Land Cycle Investor , you’d be aware of the changing trends shaping the mortgage market to enable banks to keep lending. The moves mirror patterns observed in the second half of previous cycles. Notably, in the UK, banks are gearing up to offer no-deposit 100% mortgage loans. A growing number of homebuyers are embracing ‘ultra-long’ mortgages, with terms extending beyond 35 years. This shift has propelled the average asking price of UK pro

If you look at the run-up to the peak in the last few cycles — 1973, 1989, 2008 — rates always rose alongside prices (much like they’re doing now, as we approach the expected 2026 peak). It required lending institutions to find innovative ways to attract borrowers into the winner’s curse phase of the cycle (the final two years), regardless of cost-of-living pressures. Homer Hoyt noted this reoccurring pattern in the run-up to the peak in his book One Hundred Years of

I ran across this headline the other day… Source: AFR The story focuses on the recent change in market conditions. It’s resulted in a vendor at the top end of the market achieving their $2.35 million wish price after their property passed in for $50,000 less six months ago at auction. That’s not surprising. Market conditions have improved. Punters are still budgeting for rate increases and are holding back some in reserve. However, clearance rates are now pushing above 70

I had an interesting question from a reader a few weeks ago: ‘ Hi Catherine, I read your last article and watched your interview with Greg Canavan. ‘ You mentioned that in the last 3 cycle downturns [sic], there hasn’t been anywhere the value decreased more than 15-20%. ‘ The biggest downturn was during the recent slump in 2017-2018 which was around 10%. ‘ So that means at the peak of the cycle it never exceeded that number. So why is that and what’s the point of worrying ab

In a bold move that has sent a few shockwaves through the real estate industry, the Victorian government has announced the implementation of a new land tax levy. The levy — a part of the COVID debt levy included in this year’s budget — aims to raise $4.7 billion by reducing the tax-free threshold for general land tax rates on properties that are not considered principal places of residence. (The details are here .) While the measure is intended to ease the burden on the state

I get many letters from property investors wanting to know what to do with their property investments at the peak of the real estate cycle. The question — ‘when should I sell? 2025 or 2026?’ No matter what stage of life you’re at, the answer will always depend on what kind of real estate you’re holding. Even within the context of the boom/bust cycle — what you buy is far more important than trying to time the peak. Let me explain. Back in 2007 — the peak of the last real esta

There’s been a lot of focus over recent years on health and medication. However, if you want a long, healthy — and wealthy — life, the key is in the location… The value of productive, well-located residential land is enduring. Something Fred Harrison knew too well when he titled his 1983 publication — when predicting the 1990s downturn — The Power in the Land. Maybe better termed, ‘The power in the land and its location’. It’s important you understand this concept, because th

All the issues we face today, inflation, inequality, labour shortages, and high and rising land prices (and rents), have their cause rooted within the land cycle. A few months ago, I interviewed Warren Mosler, the founder of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscribers. We discuss his views on inflation, the monetary system, and, more importantly, why we should have a ‘ property-only tax ’! You can listen to the interview below. Warren is a smart

Dubai is building a moon… Yes, you read that right. In an effort to make itself a global leader in ‘space tourism’, it’s launching what will be the region’s biggest ever tourist project. Dubai’s giant moon will cost 18 billion dirham. It will contain spas, restaurants, nightclubs, luxury residences, a moon shuttle, and training services for various space agencies worldwide. Take a look at the mock up. I’m not sure I’d want it in my backyard, but you can’t deny it’s impressive