All the major time cycles are converging – the land cycle, war cycles, Kondratieff Wave, and the commodity supercycle. This rare alignment has always marked turning points in history. And right now, it points to the trigger for what could be a powerful surge in commodity prices..

Find out if NZ resonates with the 18Y land cycle - has it always been a rent-seekers paradise? Have local policies disrupted its land cycle?

It remains, that over 80% of today’s wealthiest Australians have made their fortunes as rentiers. Learn the mechanics of rent seeking....

Selling the air for profit - we often hear about the mismanagement of "taxpayer money," but what about "taxpayer air rights"?

Economic insights with Dr Cameron Murray - you can only 'see' a Land Cycle by studying history..

Last year, the Greens made a push to scrap the tradition of saying the Lord’s Prayer in the upper house. This year, the Victorian government have pledged to do the same, despite it being a tradition since 1918. Instead, they want fellow parliamentarians to stand and reflect, say affirmations, or their own version of a prayer. Reflection has a lot going for it. I meditate from time to time, too. However, I wonder if parliamentarians would be so keen to scrap the Lord’s Prayer

The mainstream media (MSM) is full of stories of desperate families unable to secure rental accommodation. Take this one from QLD: ‘ Renee and Troy have been frantically flicking through real estate sites trying to find a rental after the owner of their old home gave them a 60-day vacation notice… ‘ They are unable to put a number on how many applications have come back unsuccessful. ‘ “ We’ve lost count, but I would say well over 60 by now, ” Troy said. ‘ The rejection is ta

We all desire a country built on the pillars of community, equity, and economic justice. But it’s simply not possible in a country pinned to the foundation of rising land values as a necessity to fund retirement and most other lifestyle and business needs. The social consequence that arises from this costs Australians millions in welfare payments throughout the year. Yet it is still advertised and promoted as the road to riches — unsurprisingly. If I had the choice of being a

In the late 1800s, Melbourne was heralded as ‘Marvelous Melbourne’. It was experiencing the biggest boom Australia had ever seen. Immigrants discovered large nuggets of gold in areas such as Castlemaine and Bendigo. They poured their wealth into the real estate market. By 1889, the value of land in parts of central Melbourne was as high as that in London. The most successful developed an intricate web of land banks, mortgage companies, and building societies. It was all set u

I ran across this headline the other day… Source: AFR The story focuses on the recent change in market conditions. It’s resulted in a vendor at the top end of the market achieving their $2.35 million wish price after their property passed in for $50,000 less six months ago at auction. That’s not surprising. Market conditions have improved. Punters are still budgeting for rate increases and are holding back some in reserve. However, clearance rates are now pushing above 70

Many want to know how to time and sell at the top of the real estate cycle, which, I have forecast to occur in 2026. This is not an easy task. More so because the median peak in property values differs per state and territory. And note, you don’t have to sell at the top! As I’ve stressed previously, history shows that good real estate — in the biggest states by population (primarily Sydney and Melbourne) — typically exceeds the peak of the cycle in the first half of the next

The core to learning the mechanics of the 18.6-year land cycle is fully understanding the role of economic rent (unearned income) and rent-seeking in the economy. This is the ‘free lunch’ that so many desire — and the rights to which are protected by the elite at all costs. Throughout the cycle, the greatest economic gains always come from owning the rights to land. However, rent-seeking can take on many forms. Cast your minds back to the taxi licencing monopoly, for example.

News of the US Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse has flooded the media headlines over the past week, and unsurprisingly, many are wondering how it fits in with the real estate cycle. First the backdrop. For those not aware, SVB was a leading provider of financial services to technology and innovation start up industries. The bank is headquartered in Santa Clara, California, but operates in the United States, Europe, and Asia. SVB worked with many well-known companies and inv

You’ve no doubt heard of the investment company Blackstone. They’re a behemoth in the world of investment and finance. With more than $730 billion in assets under management, the firm is a force to be reckoned with. They’ve got their fingers in a lot of pies, from private equity to real estate to hedge funds, and they’ve been gobbling up assets and real estate over the years at a breakneck pace. Most recently, Blackstone has also been eyeing up the Australian land market. Fro

I had an interesting question from a Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscriber this week. Take a look: ‘ Catherine, I bought my house here...

An article caught my attention this week in The Australian about owners selling the air above their apartment blocks for profit. Take a...

Roy Wenzlick is possibly the greatest housing market forecaster of all time.  He did an immense amount of research on the real estate cycle and is renowned for his forecasting abilities.  However, unlike Homer Hoyt (who is credited for ‘discovering’ the 18-year boom/bust pattern as it applied to land in his 1933 book One hundred years of land values in Chicago ), Wenzlick doesn’t get a mention on Wikipedia. In fact, it’s incredibly difficult to find Wenzlick’s publicatio