UPDATING THE CAPE CHARTS: WHAT THEY GOT RIGHT—AND THEIR DRAMATIC FORECAST FOR THE 2030s AUSSIE PROPERTY MARKETS

THE PROPERTY FORECAST IN 2019 THAT SAW THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN MARKET DIVIDE COMING

 

NOTE: This week's report also includes an interview with property strategist Nick Hayes.

I interviewed Nick at teh end of 2024. His analysis of WA’s historical growth cycles and what Perth could achieve as we approached the peak of both the current land cycle and Kondratiev wave - was exceptional.

In fact, his forecast that Perth and Brisbane could rise by 100–150% by 2026–27 proved remarkably close to the mark. You can recap on that report here.

This week, I invited Nick back to discuss the updated property CAPE charts and the investment landscape for the Aussie property markets following the Federal Budget’s tax changes.

I'll include more detail below, but to skip straight to the interview - click here.

What the CAPE charts got right, what they missed - and what they forecast for the Aussie Property Markets into the 2030s....

Back in Jan 2024, I published a detailed report for Land Cycle investor on a series of property CAPE charts produced by Philip Soos of LF Economics.

The link to that edition is here.

But that was not the first time I had shown readers forecasts based on the CAPE metric.

I initially published the charts in December 2019 - before the COVID-mid-cycle panic, before emergency interest rates, before closed borders, before the Home-Builder incentives, and before the extraordinary population surge that followed!

It was easy to look at Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane or Darwin after the COVID boom and construct a convincing explanation for why it happened.

But far harder to identify those markets in advance, when Perth was only just emerging from a long downturn and Darwin was still in recession.

Yet that is what the original CAPE analysis was able to do.

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