Fred Harrison on the Future of the 18-Year Land Cycle, Economic Rent and the Crisis Ahead
I had the pleasure of catching up with Fred Harrison again this week, a dear friend and colleague whose contribution to the study of the 18-year land cycle and Georgist economics has been nothing short of monumental.
Fred is currently working on what he tells me will be his final book...
Despite having suffered some health issues, he's looking and doing better than ever, and his determination to continue researching, writing and challenging conventional economic thinking remains as strong as I've ever known it.
I don't think many people can explain as clearly as Fred why economies are condemned to repeat the same destructive boom-bust cycle, or how the private appropriation of economic rent lies behind so many of the problems we see around us today, from growing inequality and political unrest to economic crises and war.
In this interview, we discuss the upheaval taking place across Europe, the economic grievances underlying the protests, the enormous economic rents being captured by the technology giants, and how governments have allowed wealth generated through publicly created opportunities to accumulate in private hands rather than using it for the public good.
We also discuss the potentially catastrophic consequences of the current cycle, and whether the economic and political changes now unfolding could mean that the familiar 18-year pattern, which has guided so much of our research, may not continue in the way we've come to expect.
The future of the 18-year cycle?
One subject I particularly wanted to explore was how Fred's own thinking about the cycle has evolved over the years, especially his understanding of why it lasts approximately 18 years.
I've noticed some interesting changes in his reasoning, particularly in his more recent books, and towards the latter part of our conversation I questioned him about this in some detail.
His answers were fascinating, not least because Fred is prepared to acknowledge what remains unexplained, and to reconsider ideas he has spent decades investigating.
We also revisit the work of earlier cycle researchers, including Homer Hoyt and Roy Wenzlick, one of whom Fred met, and discuss how their understanding of the cycle differed from his own.
For those of us who have devoted so much of our lives to studying the land cycle, Fred remains the shining beacon of this research.
We all stand on his shoulders, drawing upon decades of painstaking historical and economic investigation that have given us a far deeper understanding of how the cycle operates, and more importantly, why it exists in the first place.
Yet Fred's work has never simply been about forecasting the next property boom or bust.
His concern has always been with the damage the system inflicts upon society, and what must change if future generations are to escape it. It's this broader perspective, and his extraordinary grasp of history, that makes conversations with him so valuable.
I cherish every opportunity I have to speak with Fred, and I hope this interview gives subscribers an insight into some of his thinking that doesn't always come through in his other interviews, particularly the questions that remain unresolved and the direction his research is now taking as he works towards completing his final book.
One small note before you watch. We had a few internet connection problems at Fred's end, which meant I had to pause the recording a couple of times while we waited for him to reconnect.
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