Remember, the second half of the cycle, historically, is stronger than the first. The bullet points below set out the pattern. Growth in values was flat between 1955 to the early 1960s, then rose strongly through to 1974 Growth from the late 1970s to the mid-80s was flat, then rose strongly between 1987–89 (the winner’s curse phase of the cycle) There was flat growth from the early 1990s to the mid-1990s, then the market boomed between 2001–08 And again, the market was flat (

There’s a lot of fear at the moment regarding rate rises and their ongoing effect on the economy. No one expected the latest 0.25% increase in the cash rate — it caught markets by surprise. There’s now clear indication that the RBA may have tightened too much, and as a consequence, the Australian 2–10-year yield curve has *just* inverted. Source: AMP Capital An inverted yield curve might sound like some complex financial jargon, but it’s pretty straightforward once you break

I ran across this headline the other day… Source: AFR The story focuses on the recent change in market conditions. It’s resulted in a vendor at the top end of the market achieving their $2.35 million wish price after their property passed in for $50,000 less six months ago at auction. That’s not surprising. Market conditions have improved. Punters are still budgeting for rate increases and are holding back some in reserve. However, clearance rates are now pushing above 70

I had an interesting question from a reader a few weeks ago: ‘ Hi Catherine, I read your last article and watched your interview with Greg Canavan. ‘ You mentioned that in the last 3 cycle downturns [sic], there hasn’t been anywhere the value decreased more than 15-20%. ‘ The biggest downturn was during the recent slump in 2017-2018 which was around 10%. ‘ So that means at the peak of the cycle it never exceeded that number. So why is that and what’s the point of worrying ab

Many want to know how to time and sell at the top of the real estate cycle, which, I have forecast to occur in 2026. This is not an easy task. More so because the median peak in property values differs per state and territory. And note, you don’t have to sell at the top! As I’ve stressed previously, history shows that good real estate — in the biggest states by population (primarily Sydney and Melbourne) — typically exceeds the peak of the cycle in the first half of the next

In a bold move that has sent a few shockwaves through the real estate industry, the Victorian government has announced the implementation of a new land tax levy. The levy — a part of the COVID debt levy included in this year’s budget — aims to raise $4.7 billion by reducing the tax-free threshold for general land tax rates on properties that are not considered principal places of residence. (The details are here .) While the measure is intended to ease the burden on the state

It’s important to note that the land cycle lays the foundation for all other cycles. We must always view other cycles within the context of what is happening with the land cycle. In the bull phases of the cycle, land prices will always rise faster than general economic growth for two primary reasons. Reason 1: Land is not produced. Its supply is fixed in location. Yet we need it for everything we do! We live on it, sleep on it, work on it, play on it. We derive all our suste

I get many letters from property investors wanting to know what to do with their property investments at the peak of the real estate cycle. The question — ‘when should I sell? 2025 or 2026?’ No matter what stage of life you’re at, the answer will always depend on what kind of real estate you’re holding. Even within the context of the boom/bust cycle — what you buy is far more important than trying to time the peak. Let me explain. Back in 2007 — the peak of the last real esta

There’s been a lot of focus over recent years on health and medication. However, if you want a long, healthy — and wealthy — life, the key is in the location… The value of productive, well-located residential land is enduring. Something Fred Harrison knew too well when he titled his 1983 publication — when predicting the 1990s downturn — The Power in the Land. Maybe better termed, ‘The power in the land and its location’. It’s important you understand this concept, because th

All the issues we face today, inflation, inequality, labour shortages, and high and rising land prices (and rents), have their cause rooted within the land cycle. A few months ago, I interviewed Warren Mosler, the founder of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscribers. We discuss his views on inflation, the monetary system, and, more importantly, why we should have a ‘ property-only tax ’! You can listen to the interview below. Warren is a smart

Dubai is building a moon… Yes, you read that right. In an effort to make itself a global leader in ‘space tourism’, it’s launching what will be the region’s biggest ever tourist project. Dubai’s giant moon will cost 18 billion dirham. It will contain spas, restaurants, nightclubs, luxury residences, a moon shuttle, and training services for various space agencies worldwide. Take a look at the mock up. I’m not sure I’d want it in my backyard, but you can’t deny it’s impressive

You can’t analyse the 18.6-year cycle using short-term data. Yet most real estate indexes only go back a few decades to the time when transactions started to be recorded digitally. Some analysts have delved through historical archives to laboriously extract a longer series of data for various regional areas. However, the one thing I want to tell you about today are the charts spanning 350 years of housing data. The Oldest Housing Index That makes it an extremely valuable docu

The core to learning the mechanics of the 18.6-year land cycle is fully understanding the role of economic rent (unearned income) and rent-seeking in the economy. This is the ‘free lunch’ that so many desire — and the rights to which are protected by the elite at all costs. Throughout the cycle, the greatest economic gains always come from owning the rights to land. However, rent-seeking can take on many forms. Cast your minds back to the taxi licencing monopoly, for example.

News of the US Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse has flooded the media headlines over the past week, and unsurprisingly, many are wondering how it fits in with the real estate cycle. First the backdrop. For those not aware, SVB was a leading provider of financial services to technology and innovation start up industries. The bank is headquartered in Santa Clara, California, but operates in the United States, Europe, and Asia. SVB worked with many well-known companies and inv

It’s not every day that I find myself aligning with the views of Stephen ‘The Kouk’ Koukoulas. He is a bit of a legend in the Australian economics scene, having worked for the Commonwealth Bank, TD Securities, and Citibank, among other big-name institutions. He also worked as an economic advisor to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Late last year, he took part in ‘The Great Housing Debate’ with Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye. During the debate, The Kouk forecast that Austra

Movements in the field of transportation are shaping what we can expect to see in the last few years of this cycle. They’re affecting how land will be utilised in the next. Remember, infrastructure and the innovation that advances it is part of what gives land its value and turns the real estate cycle. The energy needed to fuel the new forms of transport, however, is what drives the longer Kondratieff cycle. Transportation increases the economic rent of land. But it can also,

You’ve no doubt heard of the investment company Blackstone. They’re a behemoth in the world of investment and finance. With more than $730 billion in assets under management, the firm is a force to be reckoned with. They’ve got their fingers in a lot of pies, from private equity to real estate to hedge funds, and they’ve been gobbling up assets and real estate over the years at a breakneck pace. Most recently, Blackstone has also been eyeing up the Australian land market. Fro

An article caught my attention this week in The Australian about owners selling the air above their apartment blocks for profit. Take a look: ‘ Eight owners of a Sydney apartment block recently banded together to sell off the airspace above their building for almost $1m and the idea is catching on. ‘ Rooftop property development specialist Warren Livesey estimates the airspace above strata unit blocks in Australia is an untapped $100bn plus market. ‘ He has been selling Sydn

The Most Valuable Piece of Real Estate in the Universe…