We are here...! 2026 (PLUS! Explosive warning from Britain's house price Nostradamus)

Brief recap to date...

Well, it’s 2026. I honestly can’t recall exactly how many years I’ve been writing about the 18-year land cycle and pointing to 2026 as the likely peak. And now we’re here. Does this year mark the top of the land market? That’s still the forecast.

If we look back through 2025, markets were pricing in further rate cuts into early 2026, and across Australia home values kept rising. But it wasn’t uniform.

Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth pushed higher even late in the year, while Sydney and Melbourne lost momentum and price growth stalled.

What has clearly shifted, though, is the confidence that property can just keep climbing regardless of conditions.

Financial markets are now effectively pricing in at least one rate increase in 2026, possibly as early as February.

At this stage of the land cycle, the implication is obvious.

Every land boom ends the same way. Not because prices look expensive, but because the driver – credit - stops expanding.

The Credit Tightening Cycle Starts..

You can trace the sequence back through every cycle, and this one is no different.

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