The Great American Real Estate Bubble - A Repeat of 2008 or Worse?

 A few weeks ago I wrote a report suggesting we’re at - or very near - the peak in the U.S. real estate market.

You can read that report here - Has America's Land Cycle Reached Its Peak?

The information is important, because America leads the global land cycle.

It sets the rhythm for credit creation, capital flows, and investor psychology worldwide.

The U.S. has the deepest capital markets, the world’s reserve currency, and a culture that has turned land and property into financial assets more aggressively through its history, than anywhere else in the world.  

When U.S. land values rise, credit expands and speculative confidence ripples through global markets. When they fall, liquidity tightens everywhere – the peak is in and the party is over.

Historically, the American land market has peaked one to two years before major downturns spread globally to reach the shores of Australia -  as seen in 1926, 1973, 2006, and, as we see now, in the mid-2020s (2025 – early 2026)

The rest of the world follows the tempo the U.S. sets. Not because of policy coordination, but because its financial system anchors the world’s appetite for debt and the speculative fervour that drives each cycle to excess.

Today, I’m going to walk you through where we are in the U.S. and Australian land cycle -  revisiting the historical patterns that always emerge as we approach the final peak.

Then, I’ll bring you one of the best interviews I’ve recorded this year -  my conversation with Melody Wright - author of M3_Melody Substack.

Melody is a U.S.-based housing market analyst, mortgage strategist, writer, and technologist with deep, hands-on experience inside the mortgage industry.

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