We're Here.. The Final Countdown to the Land Cycle Crash
- Catherine Cashmore

- Aug 30
- 10 min read
Updated: Sep 14
Well this is it.
We’re in the final run of the land cycle. The last burn off before prices stagnate and the economy brinkers on the edge of economic distress.
If you’ve been following the headlines, you’ll know the Albanese government has pulled forward its expanded 5%-deposit first-home buyer scheme to October.
It’s politically brilliant. Economically? It’s the classic late-cycle accelerant we would expect. And it’s landed right on cue.
Make no mistake, this is a government-backed sub-prime mortgage boom – made from low deposits, very high leverage, and a rush of buyers into a tightly supplied market.
What it means, is that from October, First-home buyers can purchase with as little as a 5% deposit without paying lenders’ mortgage insurance.
The annual cap on places is being removed, income caps are being removed, and the property-price caps are being lifted – to $1.5 million in Sydney, $950,000 in Melbourne, and $1 million in Brisbane, (with similar rises elsewhere.)
Supply Droughts Intensify....
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