Charting the decade cycle - how we do it
Gann's major time cycles - which are important?
Introduction
This report is an introduction to the extensive analysis and research undertaken by Dr Kalvert K Clark - presented in the video below - on the Decade Cycle and other related patterns, including the War Cycle.
Kalvert has spent many decades studying cyclical patterns in markets, including around ten years, lecturing and conducting research on markets with Phil Anderson at EIS (Economic Indicator Services).
Kalvert has been a close friend of mine for many years, and I can confidently say that the level of insight in this presentation, not only enhances an understanding of the Decade Cycle but also offers a level of detail that surpasses any other lecture I've come across on the topic.
To quote from one of Kalvert’s publications – Dow Song, Dow Dance.
We can look back on our life to the times or periods when we had a “great time” or when we had a “bad time” i.e. when we had more money than usual, more love than usual, or more luck than usual.
ʻIt is these times or periods that need to be examined.
ʻIt is my objective to find these so called lucky times on the Dow Jones Index and by inference the lucky times of most of the world markets, as most markets follow the Dow.
ʻOn a mundane level it can inference the happier and sadder times in the world. This may influence the times as we plan our lives.ʼ
In the content of the presentation, Kalvert addresses the following points.
- How is the Decade Cycle correlated?
- What planetary movements are relevant when analysing the decade cycle
- How does the Decade Cycle apply to individual stocks?
- The difference between forecasts and predictions – how accurate can our analysis be?
- What other cycles are relevant when analysing movements in markets?
- How do these cycles interact with each other?
- How to avoid Fat Tails impacting the analysis.
- What planetary movements are relevant when studying markets.
- How to assess good years and bad in equity markets and also apply that analysis to individual stocks.
- Recommendations throughout, for books and resources that can increase the viewers knowledge.
Within the content of the discussion, Kalvert also shares his analysis on the esoteric aspects behind War Cycles. A subject we may go into more detail on at a future date. Considering the timing of the K-Wave – outlined in recent posts – the research is very relevant.
Be aware that the video is long – well over an hour in length.
However, for those that are interested in this type of analysis, you will likely return to the presentation time and time again!
With this in mind, it has always been my intention at Land Cycle Investor to educate on the esoteric aspects that lay behind the cycle – rather than keep the information locked up for an elite few.
I believe itʼs vital to gain an understanding of the history and analysis used by forecasters throughout the decades (such as W.D.Gann, Samuel Benner, and George Tritch), who were able to forecast the 2008 downturn up to 150 years in advance, and learn how it applies to our understanding.
Without this knowledge, you’re walking blind – trusting the voices of others without the ability sift through the data to apply what is relevant to your own investments.
The presentation is packed full of charts. You’ll need to bookmark and set aside time to study the content.
The presentation starts with a focus on the Decade Cycle before branching off into other cycles that interact with the decade cycle.
In the written report below to accompany the presentation, I’ll outline the basics of why the Decade Cycle is so important to our analysis. How it is correlated - and I'll present the charts that give a detailed roadmap for U.S equity markets for 2025.
If you want to skip the introduction and go straight to the charts for a roadmap of the 2025 stock market click here for the analysis and here for additional charts.
To go directly to Kalvert's presentation on the LCI website click here - or you can watch via a member only YouTube link here.
Why do we study the Decade Cycle?