I ran across this headline the other day… Source: AFR The story focuses on the recent change in market conditions. It’s resulted in a vendor at the top end of the market achieving their $2.35 million wish price after their property passed in for $50,000 less six months ago at auction. That’s not surprising. Market conditions have improved. Punters are still budgeting for rate increases and are holding back some in reserve. However, clearance rates are now pushing above 70

I had an interesting question from a reader a few weeks ago: ‘Hi Catherine, I read your last article and watched your interview with Greg Canavan. ‘You mentioned that in the last 3 cycle downturns [sic], there hasn’t been anywhere the value decreased more than 15-20%. ‘The biggest downturn was during the recent slump in 2017-2018 which was around 10%. ‘So that means at the peak of the cycle it never exceeded that number. So why is that and what’s the point of worrying about

In a bold move that has sent a few shockwaves through the real estate industry, the Victorian government has announced the implementation of a new land tax levy. The levy — a part of the COVID debt levy included in this year’s budget — aims to raise $4.7 billion by reducing the tax-free threshold for general land tax rates on properties that are not considered principal places of residence. (The details are here.) While the measure is intended to ease the burden on the state’

I get many letters from property investors wanting to know what to do with their property investments at the peak of the real estate cycle. The question — ‘when should I sell? 2025 or 2026?’ No matter what stage of life you’re at, the answer will always depend on what kind of real estate you’re holding. Even within the context of the boom/bust cycle — what you buy is far more important than trying to time the peak. Let me explain. Back in 2007 — the peak of the last real esta

There’s been a lot of focus over recent years on health and medication. However, if you want a long, healthy — and wealthy — life, the key is in the location… The value of productive, well-located residential land is enduring. Something Fred Harrison knew too well when he titled his 1983 publication — when predicting the 1990s downturn — The Power in the Land. Maybe better termed, ‘The power in the land and its location’. It’s important you understand this concept, because th

All the issues we face today, inflation, inequality, labour shortages, and high and rising land prices (and rents), have their cause rooted within the land cycle. A few months ago, I interviewed Warren Mosler, the founder of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscribers. We discuss his views on inflation, the monetary system, and, more importantly, why we should have a ‘property-only tax’! You can listen to the interview below. Warren is a smart man

Dubai is building a moon… Yes, you read that right. In an effort to make itself a global leader in ‘space tourism’, it’s launching what will be the region’s biggest ever tourist project. Dubai’s giant moon will cost 18 billion dirham. It will contain spas, restaurants, nightclubs, luxury residences, a moon shuttle, and training services for various space agencies worldwide. Take a look at the mock up. I’m not sure I’d want it in my backyard, but you can’t deny it’s impressive

News of the US Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse has flooded the media headlines over the past week, and unsurprisingly, many are wondering how it fits in with the real estate cycle. First the backdrop. For those not aware, SVB was a leading provider of financial services to technology and innovation start up industries. The bank is headquartered in Santa Clara, California, but operates in the United States, Europe, and Asia. SVB worked with many well-known companies and inv

Movements in the field of transportation are shaping what we can expect to see in the last few years of this cycle. They’re affecting how land will be utilised in the next. Remember, infrastructure and the innovation that advances it is part of what gives land its value and turns the real estate cycle. The energy needed to fuel the new forms of transport, however, is what drives the longer Kondratieff cycle. Transportation increases the economic rent of land. But it can also,

I had an interesting question from a Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscriber this week. Take a look: ‘ Catherine, I bought my house here in South Melbourne in October 1981. ‘ It cost me $ 55,000, a 2 bedroom weather board, north yard, free standing with side gateway, all in good order. ‘ I could sell it today for about $1,300,000 $55,000 subtracted from $1,300,000 leaves the sum of $1,245,000. ‘ Is this sum what you mean by economic rent, I was sleeping a third of that time.

An article caught my attention this week in The Australian about owners selling the air above their apartment blocks for profit. Take a look: ‘ Eight owners of a Sydney apartment block recently banded together to sell off the airspace above their building for almost $1m and the idea is catching on. ‘ Rooftop property development specialist Warren Livesey estimates the airspace above strata unit blocks in Australia is an untapped $100bn plus market. ‘ He has been selling Sydn

I want to pay tribute to Dame Vivienne Westwood, who passed away at the age of 81 on 29 December. Her passing received wide media coverage. The global icon was responsible for bringing modern punk and new wave fashion into the mainstream, helping launch and clothe the Sex Pistols, and having a tremendous influence on how thousands of men and women dressed throughout the years. However, Westwood was, at heart, an activist. In her autobiography, Vivienne Westwood, written with