WHEN WILL THE STOCK MARKET CRASH? NARROWING THE WINDOW

For this week’s report, I’m attempting to narrow down a more precise date, than simply the year of the coming stock market collapse.

We already know that the peak in the land cycle is upon us.

I have been writing about a 2026 land price peak since 2014.

It was assessed to be so, because Australia’s property market began its effective recovery from the last crisis mid-2012. Add the 14-year upward phase of the land cycle, as explained in my land cycle paper, and it brings us directly to late 2026. 

Australian cycles do not always adhere to an exact 14-year expansion – the population here is small and the sample base tends toward bias.

My analysis of previous cycles shows that the upward phase can be shorter or longer depending on local credit conditions, government intervention and the severity of the preceding downturn.

But 14 is the average, and here we are: 14 years on from the 2012 low - sales volumes have tanked and median prices are falling across much of the country.

I gave subscribers a clear deadline last year, in multiple reports, to get out no later than the end of the first quarter of this year.

With the tax changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax subsequently announced in the federal budget in May, that proved to be quite the call.

As a result, property spruikers are in a flat panic.

Yet – if you’ve been following the research since 2014 – you’d have known about this exact period, more than a decade in advance!

If you understand the land cycle – and stay on top of the research, you’ll continue to have evidence years and months in advance, of future market movements.

Want to read more?

Subscribe to landcycleinvestor.com to keep reading this exclusive post.

Subscribe Now