THE END OF THE 18-YEAR LAND CYCLE AS WE KNOW IT: ARE WE HEADING INTO ANOTHER LOST DECADE?
I received a message from a subscriber this week alerting me to a new video on Fred Harrison's YouTube channel that’s creating quite a stir.
In an extensive interview with fellow Georgist and long-time friend Peter Smith, Fred is calling the end of the land cycle. (You can watch it on YouTube here. )
Not the end in the sense of the economic collapse we've been forecasting for 2027–28. He’s calling the end of the 18-year land cycle as we know it.
It is something I discussed with Fred in our last interview for Land Cycle Investor – that’s where you may have heard it first. (Read the report here: Fred Harrison on the Future of the 18-Year Land Cycle, Economic Rent and the Crisis Ahead) But the headline and the way his latest video is being marketed have certainly generated a lot of attention, with well over 100,000 views.
It needs consideration.
And for good reason!
Fred is making an extraordinary prediction. He believes the coming property crash will be fundamentally different from those we've experienced before.
Not because house prices will fall further than expected, or because the recession will be more severe, but because he doesn't believe house prices will or can recover in real terms.
To quote directly from Fred
“No, this time it's different in a historic manner.”
Fred is comparing the present transformation of AI, to the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, which fundamentally changed where economic rent accumulated.
“So, with the industrial revolution the value of the rents was shifted from farmland to urban land. We are now in a period when the value of urban land is being shifted to a new sphere.”
And then comes his extraordinary call,
“So, one consequence of that is that house prices will not recover as they have done at the end of previous cycles. They will go down and they will stay down in real terms, real prices, real values.”
Want to read more?
Subscribe to landcycleinvestor.com to keep reading this exclusive post.
