LCI INTERVIEW WITH DAVID BIRD: WHERE TO HIDE AS THE CYCLE TURNS
Following on from this week’s report on the Bathla collapse, I caught up with David Bird for another wide-ranging discussion on where we are in the land cycle — and, more importantly for investors, what the charts are now telling us about the markets.
David is the founder of Mastering the Markets, which has grown into one of Australia's largest investing education businesses, with more than 50 staff and over 1,000 students coming through each year. A former primary-school teacher who went on to make his money through trading and investing, David has become a regular financial-market commentator in the mainstream media and is particularly good at taking complicated chart analysis and making it understandable.
I've known David for a few years now and first introduced him to the 18-year land cycle back in 2023. What makes this conversation particularly interesting is that he approaches markets from a different direction to me. I’m looking at the longer land and economic cycle; David is looking at what is actually showing up in the charts. Increasingly, those two pictures are beginning to tell a similar story.
We discuss the Bathla collapse and why the supposed Australian “housing shortage” doesn't protect the property market from a downturn, before moving across to equities, where David believes the warning signs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. He takes us through a stack of charts comparing today's market with previous major turning points and explains what he is seeing in the S&P 500, bond yields and the changing momentum beneath the market.
Some of the most valuable analysis comes from David's views on where capital may rotate next.
We look at gold, oil, copper, energy and resources, why hard assets have historically performed differently when equities struggle, and the extraordinary resource and energy demands emerging from AI and the data-centre boom.
There are a lot of charts in this interview, so I recommend watching rather than simply listening if you can.
David is a very smart market analyst and a great teacher, and there is plenty here for investors to think about as we move through what is becoming a particularly important turning point in the cycle.
INTERVIEW WITH DAVID BIRD
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