Land, War, and the End-Of-Cycle Battle for Global Power
- Catherine Cashmore
- Oct 25
- 69 min read
The Final Ascent of the Land Cycle
I’ve written quite a bit in recent weeks about the U.S. land cycle approaching its peak. And while Australia is currently pricing in rapid real estate gains - fuelled by the federal government’s 5% deposit scheme - we probably have only six to twelve months before that stimulus is fully absorbed into the land price and the market begins to stagnate.
What ends a cycle is not simply high debt, but debt expanding faster than the economy - especially when that growth is concentrated in real-estate credit and speculative asset lending.
However, interestingly, household debt levels in the U.S. are not as stretched as they were leading into 2008.
Before the Global Financial Crisis, household debt to GDP in the U.S. surged to around 98% by the December 2007 quarter.
Today, that figure sits closer to 68%.
In other words, the problem in 2008 wasn’t just excessive debt - it was the acceleration of borrowing tied to a property bubble.
When that acceleration reversed, the crash followed.
Total household debt in the U.S., in dollar terms, remains enormous - about US $18.4 trillion in mid-2025 (according to the New York Fed.)
But, still it’s not the same kind of runaway credit expansion in housing that defined the pre-GFC period.
I’ll explore this a little more next week when I speak with Steven Keen. He feels, on that basis, the U.S. downturn could be less violent this time.
For now, however, while we can debate how real estate prices will behave as this land cycle draws to a close - and try to pinpoint the precise moment of economic contraction - we can’t ignore the dark shadow that threatens to disrupt it.
War!
War - The Shadow Hanging Over This Cycle
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