A few weeks ago, I interviewed Global Forecaster’s David Murrin to discuss his analysis of the Kondratieff long wave and the prospect of war at the peak of this current cycle.
David Murrin is one of the smartest men I’ve had the pleasure of meeting.
He’s a renowned global forecaster, author, and entrepreneur, known for his groundbreaking work in predicting and analysing major world events. With a career spanning over three decades, Murrin has earned a reputation as one of the most astute and accurate forecasters of our time.
Murrin’s best-known work is his seminal book Breaking the Code of History, which was published in 2011 and became an instant classic.
He’s also author of Red Lightening — How the West lost World War III to China in 2025.
It’s an insightful title considering 2025 will be signalling the forthcoming peak of both the real estate cycle and the Kondratieff wave, which is exactly when we would expect conflicts to escalate.
Kondratieff long waves (K-waves) are long economic cycles related to the demand for commodities and the technology they fuel.
Steam and railways, steel and heavy engineering, oil, electricity, the automobile, information and telecommunications, robotics, and so forth.
They can be traced back to the 16th/17th century.
They last, on average, around 50–60 years.
Roughly 25 years of rising commodity prices, followed by 25 years down.
But the peak of the K-wave is also strongly correlated with war.
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