Crash Now or Crash Later? NZ and Canada - A Preview of How Australia’s Land Cycle Will End..
- Catherine Cashmore
- Sep 13
- 7 min read
In this week’s Land Cycle Investor, we dive into New Zealand and Canada to ask whether their sharp corrections offer a preview of how Australia's Land Cycle will end. The report also features an exclusive interview with MacroBusiness co-founder Leith van Onselen — packed with charts and data, all available for you to download below. Has New Zealand already burned through its 18-year cycle, well before the global peak arrives?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate (OCR) by 2.5% since July 2024 and in return, it’s sent mortgage rates tumbling – with around a 50 basis point drop for new loans.
You’d think this would fuel higher prices. But not so!
Home values were down another 0.8% in the August quarter according to Quotable Value, leaving national prices a whopping 13.4% below their January 2022 peak.
Wellington is down almost 30%, Auckland around 20%.
The REINZ index echoes the same trend. National values are down more than 17% over the past 45 months, barely higher than they were five years ago.
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