No one wants to conceive the concept of another World War. However, if we ignore the warning signs, we remain in ignorant to the patterns of history - which, after all, is why history repeats....
I pulled myself out of bed whilst it was still dark a few days ago, to interview U.K. Global Forecaster David Murrin.
This is my third interview with David, and despite the early hour, it didn’t disappoint.
David is one of the smartest analysists I’ve met.
He has over two decades of experience in financial forecasting and strategic consulting.
He’s advised governments, international organizations, and Fortune 500 companies on a wide range of issues, from economic policy to investment strategy.
He is the author of numerous titles, including Breaking the Code of History, in which he expands on the models of empire and human behaviour that have allowed him to make some incredibly accurate forecasts in recent years.
Needless to say, David has an impressive CV behind him.
He began his working career exploring the jungles of Papa New Guinea and the Pacific islands working in oil exploration.
He went on to trade at a Wall Street bank, after which he set up his own investment firm and hedge fund, using his models for understanding geopolitics and markets to make profitable returns for himself and his investors.
Murrin’s thesis is essentially a five-stage empire model (using K-Wave and Elliot wave analysis), which in 2002 when he created it, implied, and predicted that:
- The US was in terminal decline — the fifth stage of his empire model.
- China was the second of the Asian super empires and was in its expansion phase and would move into the gap aggressively to create a hegemonic challenge to the US.
- He has forecast that the peak of their hegemonic challenge will come with the next commodity cycle peak — between 2027 to 2030.
- And we would have a human systems threat of a third World War unless certain steps were taken now to change the course of history.
War with China in 2024 and the Hegemonic Cycle
David is forecasting war with China to commence this year – 2024. That’s a terrifying concept.
However, his analysis is not rash – it’s built on decades of research that considers both the timing of the land cycle (in this instance, the Kondratieff Wave, or K-Wave) and also the longer Hegemonic War Cycle.
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