BATHLA COLLAPSE: THE 18-yr CANARY IN THE COAL MINE WARNING FOR AUSTRALIA’S 2027 CRASH?
I had an email from US housing commentator Melody Wright this week.
Regular readers of Land Cycle Investor will be familiar with Melody.
She has spent years digging beneath the headline numbers in the US housing market, particularly in areas that receive far less attention from mainstream analysts - mortgage stress, distressed borrowers, the plumbing of housing finance and what’s actually happening on the ground when the official data is telling a rather different story.
I've interviewed Melody a number of times over the years and, more recently, introduced her to the 18-year land cycle.
She has since begun incorporating elements of the cycle into her own analysis of the US market, and we’ve continued to correspond about what we’re seeing on both sides of the world.
It's been a great connection.
This week, however, it was Australia that caught her attention.
News of the collapse of Sydney property giant Bathla Group had reached her desk, and she emailed me wanting to understand the scale of what had happened and, more importantly, what I thought it meant in the context of the land cycle.
And that is exactly where I want to start this week, because the timing of this collapse matters every bit as much as its scale.
The below is taken from Melody’s latest SubStack
“Catherine is the reason I first started studying the 18-year land cycle.
“For over a decade now, she has been focused on 2027, so you will want to hear her view on what’s next for home prices in Australia as we may also soon be looking into this mirror…”
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