Inside America's Housing Market Freeze - Why This Property Downturn Could Eclipse 2008...

This week I sat down with U.S. housing analyst and author of the Substack M_3Melody, Melody Wright, to discuss where America is in its land cycle.

Over the past year  I have built a solid friendship with Melody through our regular correspondence.

Before we connected, Melody wasn't familiar with the 18-year land cycle.

I recently shared with her the paper I'd written on the subject—The Land Cycle, (available in the Members' Publications section of the website)—and it's been genuinely gratifying to watch her start incorporate some of its findings into her own analysis of the U.S. housing market!

You can read more on her Substack here – Can You Feel It?

I’m hopeful that it will help gain interest from an international audience and generate a new wave of analysis into the research. (To skip the report and go straight to the interview - click here)

America's housing market sets the pace for the rest of the world

The United States leads the land cycle.

It's the world's largest economy, with a population more than twelve times that of Australia and by far the deepest and most liquid property and financial markets.

Australia, by comparison, is a relatively small, open economy whose fortunes are heavily influenced by global capital flows and events offshore.

Think of it like the share market.

The U.S. is the equivalent of the ASX 200 or the S&P 500—a broad index made up of thousands of participants, where cyclical turning points are easier to identify. ‘

Australia is more like an individual stock. It has its own characteristics, but ultimately it still tends to follow the direction of the broader market.

History bears this out.

During the Global Financial Crisis, America's housing market peaked in mid-2006, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

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