I ran across this headline the other day… Source: AFR The story focuses on the recent change in market conditions. It’s resulted in a vendor at the top end of the market achieving their $2.35 million wish price after their property passed in for $50,000 less six months ago at auction. That’s not surprising. Market conditions have improved. Punters are still budgeting for rate increases and are holding back some in reserve. However, clearance rates are now pushing above 70

I get many letters from property investors wanting to know what to do with their property investments at the peak of the real estate cycle. The question — ‘when should I sell? 2025 or 2026?’ No matter what stage of life you’re at, the answer will always depend on what kind of real estate you’re holding. Even within the context of the boom/bust cycle — what you buy is far more important than trying to time the peak. Let me explain. Back in 2007 — the peak of the last real esta

Movements in the field of transportation are shaping what we can expect to see in the last few years of this cycle. They’re affecting how land will be utilised in the next. Remember, infrastructure and the innovation that advances it is part of what gives land its value and turns the real estate cycle. The energy needed to fuel the new forms of transport, however, is what drives the longer Kondratieff cycle. Transportation increases the economic rent of land. But it can also,

Today we follow on from Fred Harrison’s interview I brought to you last week. In that interview, Fred concludes that this cycle will continue to a peak in 2026 but be followed by war. This is why Fred sees this cycle as different from others. In Fred’s words: ‘ In my view the 18-year cycle will continue to extend, house prices will peak in 2026. ‘ The end of the cycle is 2028 – the depths of the recession. ‘ But unlike previous end of 18 year cycles this one will be a particu

I had an interesting question from a Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscriber this week. Take a look: ‘ Catherine, I bought my house here in South Melbourne in October 1981. ‘ It cost me $ 55,000, a 2 bedroom weather board, north yard, free standing with side gateway, all in good order. ‘ I could sell it today for about $1,300,000 $55,000 subtracted from $1,300,000 leaves the sum of $1,245,000.  ‘ Is this sum what you mean by economic rent, I was sleeping a third of that time.

An article caught my attention this week in The Australian about owners selling the air above their apartment blocks for profit. Take a look: ‘ Eight owners of a Sydney apartment block recently banded together to sell off the airspace above their building for almost $1m and the idea is catching on. ‘ Rooftop property development specialist Warren Livesey estimates the airspace above strata unit blocks in Australia is an untapped $100bn plus market. ‘ He has been selling Sydn