The Biggest Property Downturn in 45 Years looms....
PLUS! Veteran Australian property analyst Cameron Kusher delivers a dark warning for the housing market in this week’s interview.... The power of cyclical analysis..
There are moments when the value of understanding the land cycle — and its importance to economic activity — becomes particularly apparent, and we're living through one of them now.
For many years, the predictive power of the land cycle has informed us that 2026 would mark the peak of an extraordinary real-estate boom — perhaps the greatest in history. Fred Harrison has been perhaps the most prominent economist to point towards the precise timing of that peak, based on a body of work stretching back through centuries of land-market history.
Along the way, the cycle also gave us a framework for forecasting, well in advance, the significant mid-cycle recession around 2020, the recovery and speculation that would follow, the rise in inflation and interest rates as we approached the peak, and the increasingly speculative behaviour we expected to emerge during the final years of the boom — particularly in markets such as South-East Queensland and Perth.
Indeed - we anticipated an enormous land boom - and being on the inflationary upswing of the Kondratieff wave, we also expected competition for land, energy and minerals to intensify, with the growing risk of war as we approached the peak.
What we couldn't possibly have known, however, was exactly how any of it would eventuate.
And it's worth taking a moment to consider just how extraordinary the events of this cycle have been.
Want to read more?
Subscribe to landcycleinvestor.com to keep reading this exclusive post.
