Land Cycle Investor Market Update for 2026

PLUS! Exclusive interview with Jonathan Evans - a market analyst and cycle specialist, with a background in trading, financial education, and investment publishing

For now, the situation in the Middle East has moved back from the brink.

A tentative ceasefire is in place, and while few would call it secure, it has been enough to ease immediate fears of a full-scale disruption to global energy flows.

At least for now.

Crucially, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil chokepoint – has not been fully shut down.

Tankers are moving - albeit with rocketing insurance costs.

For the land cycle, it buys some time. And with that, the S&P made a new all-time high this week as fears of escalating conflict eased.

Governments now have a narrow window to shore up alternative supply lines.

In Australia’s case, over 90% of our refined fuel is imported.

We only have two operating refineries left (Geelong and Lytton), and they cover roughly 20–25% of domestic demand.

On Wednesday, in rather uncanny timing, a gas leak caused a fire to break out at the Geelong refinery. 

The Geelong refinery normally supplies about 50% of Victoria’s fuel and roughly 10% of Australia’s total fuel. So, the disruption in local supply – even temporary – is disastrous.

The rest of Australia’s supply – petrol, diesel, jet fuel etc. – arrives by ship, largely from Asia (Singapore, South Korea, etc).

When you look at China and its threat to Taiwan - the risks to the region, whether through conflict, a blockade, or even just disruption to shipping routes – Australia is in a very vulnerable position at this point in the cycle.

The federal government is running around like chicken without a head releasing portions of its emergency reserves, making available “about seven days’ worth of petrol” and “five days of diesel” to ease immediate pressure, while Energy Minister Chris Bowen noted the move is designed to give suppliers “flexibility to manage their supply.”

Canberra has stepped in to underwrite fuel imports, effectively trying to get companies continue bringing shipments into the country despite rising geopolitical risk.

Western Australia is more exposed. With no trust in the Feds, it’s busy establishing its own diesel reserve, prioritising fuel shipments through its ports - coordinating weekly with industry to manage distribution. The state government describing these measures as “vital for enhancing… fuel resilience.”

None of this increases supply in a structural sense.

But it does buy time.

And for now, that breathing space is enough to keep a sharp, oil-driven inflation spike from taking hold immediately.

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