Back in 2020, I released the following chart to subscribers. It was a forecast crafted by one of Prosper Australia’s longest serving employees, Karl Fitzgerald.
Source: Prosper Australia
The black line traces the historical increase in unimproved national land values from the 1980s to 2020.
Unbeknown to many, Australia is one of the few countries that records unimproved land values in its national accounts. It gives a transparent view of the wealth of the country that’s derived solely from land. Our commonwealth.
The forecast - extending to 2030 - is represented by the orange and red lines. It projects land price growth based on the 2010 – 2020-decade trend, extrapolated forward to 2026.
When I first published this chart—before the COVID-induced property surge—it showed that from 2010 to 2020, land values had grown by an average of 4.9% annually.
That growth spans the first half of the land cycle.
We forecast, that if the same rate continued for the following five years, it would take Australia’s total land values from $6.2 trillion in 2020 - to $8.2 trillion by 2026.